Today the bitcoin price broke a key support, the so-called bitcoin realized price. This support was at around $ 25,000, and the price of bitcoin today dropped well below $ 25,000. the reason for today’s crash is the news that Celsius has suspended withdrawals. We can only speculate as to why, what we know for sure is that and their token loses more than half of its value today, they pretty much lost it all within an hour tonight. Returning to the Bitcoin realized price, it is the average price of bitcoins, but calculated on the basis of the prices that the individual satoshi had, that is, the minimum single units of measurement of bitcoin. So in a nutshell it symbolizes a good approximation of the average purchase price.
In 2022 this line had always remained between 25 and 26 thousand dollars. It had only fallen in mid-May, when there was the collapse due to the implosion of the Earth-Moon.
The really interesting thing is to analyze what happened the last time it went below this threshold. The last time the price of bitcoin fell below this threshold was in March 2020, when there was the resounding collapse of all financial markets due to the start of the pandemic. Well, although the current context is different from that of March 2020, there are some things in common, that is, they are both moments in which the financial markets are in difficulty, due to macro events, which however are rare. They are exceptions, uncommon things. In particular, at the moment, there are two problems: a very high inflation due to excessively expansive monetary policies of the central banks in recent years, and then obviously it is the persistence of the war in Ukraine, which in turn has some negative impact on the inflation, also probably due to the economic policies taken at the geopolitical level by the states. So we have two extraordinary events that are adding up creating problems in the financial markets Last time, therefore, around March 2020, even the big prize, that is the purchase price, was around 6,000 dollars and the price of bitcoin suddenly dropped from 9 thousand to 4,000 dollars.
On May 7, that is a month and a half later, Bitcoin price it had returned to its previous levels. So if this time too it is an exceptional event as it was at the time, then we could expect the price of bitcoin to drop below this threshold again for a few days, but then it could rebound quite quickly. If, on the other hand, this does not happen and the price should remain below $ 25,000 for several days, then there could have been some sort of reversal of the historical trend.
Therefore, if within ten days the price were to return above $ 25,000 then these movements would be part of the normal long-term fluctuations in the price of bitcoin.
Something like this, however, had already happened around November and December of 2018, when there was the “ash-war”. If we look at that period, the bitcoin price remained above the realized price which, at the time, was around $ 5,000 and for a long time, that is, from November 20th to April 2nd of the following year. So we are talking about several months. We cannot say with certainty whether we are in a situation like this or the other.
Currently the problems of the bitcoin price are due in particular to the markets, that is, to external problems. As previously mentioned, observing how long the bitcoin price stays below $ 25,000, and possibly how long it takes to return above, we will have a better idea of how the bitcoin price trend is evolving and over the long term.
